Sorry, Reform and Tories. There is no simple answer.
Are there too many people in the UK?
Well, looking at the rate we use resources, the pollution we cause and at accelerating climate change – the answer is yes.
But in most other respects the answer is not so clear.
2.1 children per woman are needed to keep a population steady.
But fertility rates are falling almost everywhere – and by 2050 three quarters of all countries will have birth rates at less than the replacement rate. In addition the average age of their populations are ageing fast.
This means that in three quarters of the countries there will be fewer young people, fewer people in work and far more old people to be supported.
Last year it was reported (“New Scientist” 30/03/2024) that several estimates were predicting “‘peak people’ sometime between 2060 and 2080, with a ‘head count’ of 9.5 to 10.0 billion, falling thereafter.” While there are indications that people in rural areas may be being underestimated – and so the total might be somewhat higher – there are no indications that current trends will change very much and so something similar to that predicted scenario is very likely to happen.
We need to think about this.
The first thought should perhaps be that 10 billion is probably manageable (though not of course *sustainable*) for a decade or too – and then the reducing population will begin to move in the direction of sustainability.
However, if global warming reduces food production due to climate disruption, then there might be outbreaks of famine, disease, migrations and wars.
Meanwhile economies will be damaged by unbalanced population profiles which will put strain on the minority 18-54 cohort to generate sufficient funds to support the majority who are elderly and frail. Simultaneously, the elderly will become less and less able to contribute to the economy as personal consumers – thus initiating economic contraction.
The management of these social and economic transitions is unlikely to be possible for individual countries standing alone. The only mitigation of the situation would be a carefully managed multi-decade program of international migration of young people into the higher-income countries to provide support for the temporary relative excessive numbers of the elderly and to prevent economic collapse.
This would be easier for large spacious countries like the USA, Canada, Russia and China, rather more difficult for the EU – unless it became effectively a federation (like US or Canada) – and almost impossible for a free-standing country like the UK.
However at the moment there appears to be zero chance that either the people in the democracies or the rulers of the autocracies would consent.
So, unless there is universally a profound and unlikely change in attitudes, the current chaos, inefficiencies, refugee camps, suffering, bloody wars and skirmishes will have to continue.
One thing is certain however. Whether it is arrived out rationally and cooperatively, or whether it happens the hard way – a sustainable balance WILL perforce eventually be struck between the needs of the surviving population and the sustainable resources of the planet.
It’s up to this generation to plan for the benefit of the next-but-one – and that’s the catch!